📊 Statistics
All time28
Started attempts
15
Completed
13
Abandoned
364
Answered pictures
Average final score
-311.7 points
-311.7 points
Median final score
+54.0 points
+54.0 points
🎯 Calibration
Do probabilities match reality?Calibration compares the probability assigned to Peru with the fraction of those cases that actually turned out to be Peru. A well-calibrated 70% forecast should come true about 70% of the time.
47,8%
Average forecast
51,1%
Actual Peru rate
36,1%
Mean absolute error
0,230
Brier score (lower is better)
| P(Peru) range | N | Avg. forecast | Actual Peru | Gap | Visual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 65 | 0,9% | 27,7% | +26.8 pp | |
| 10–20% | 38 | 15,3% | 36,8% | +21.5 pp | |
| 20–30% | 37 | 25,4% | 37,8% | +12.4 pp | |
| 30–40% | 32 | 34,8% | 25,0% | -9.8 pp | |
| 40–50% | 18 | 43,6% | 44,4% | +0.9 pp | |
| 50–60% | 21 | 53,4% | 52,4% | -1.0 pp | |
| 60–70% | 26 | 63,9% | 53,8% | -10.0 pp | |
| 70–80% | 37 | 74,5% | 89,2% | +14.7 pp | |
| 80–90% | 30 | 84,1% | 53,3% | -30.8 pp | |
| 90–100% | 60 | 97,8% | 83,3% | -14.5 pp |
The table uses every answered picture, including abandoned quizzes. The forecast is always P(Peru); Greenland is simply 100% minus that value. “Gap” is actual minus forecast, measured in percentage points. With few observations in a bin, the number can be noisy.
🖼️ Pictures — easiest → hardest
Sorted by average probability assigned to the correct country| # | Picture | Country | Shown | Top choice correct | Avg. P(correct) | Avg. points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IMG20220715163646.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 3 | 100,0% | 99,3% | +68,3 |
| 2 | IMG20220719170615.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 3 | 100,0% | 95,2% | +64,0 |
| 3 | IMG20220713191251.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 2 | 100,0% | 92,5% | +61,0 |
| 4 | IMG20220714130536.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 4 | 100,0% | 88,4% | +53,5 |
| 5 | IMG20220719143742.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 3 | 100,0% | 86,1% | +53,3 |
| 6 | IMG20220717165747.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 5 | 100,0% | 84,2% | +50,8 |
| 7 | IMG20220719190038.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 6 | 100,0% | 84,2% | +49,7 |
| 8 | IMG20220717180443.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 5 | 100,0% | 83,2% | +49,2 |
| 9 | IMG20220713201654.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 2 | 100,0% | 83,0% | +48,5 |
| 10 | IMG20220713155958.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 4 | 100,0% | 82,0% | +46,0 |
| 11 | IMG20220724155033.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 2 | 100,0% | 81,0% | +45,5 |
| 12 | IMG20220719190651.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 3 | 100,0% | 80,3% | +46,7 |
| 13 | IMG20220724154257.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 4 | 75,0% | 79,3% | +39,3 |
| 14 | IMG20220714101100.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 2 | 100,0% | 79,0% | +45,0 |
| 15 | IMG20260903104819.jpg | ⛰️ Peru | 16 | 87,5% | 77,6% | +38,4 |
| 16 | IMG20220717141857.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 3 | 100,0% | 77,4% | +39,7 |
| 17 | IMG20220724154439.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 6 | 100,0% | 76,4% | +40,2 |
| 18 | IMG20220715172303.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 2 | 100,0% | 75,0% | +34,5 |
| 19 | IMG20220719140409.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 5 | 80,0% | 74,9% | +34,4 |
| 20 | IMG20220723142653.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 3 | 100,0% | 74,7% | +39,7 |
| 21 | IMG20260913130126.jpg | ⛰️ Peru | 12 | 83,3% | 74,4% | +20,6 |
| 22 | IMG20260902123859.jpg | ⛰️ Peru | 10 | 80,0% | 74,1% | -19,6 |
| 23 | IMG20220714191237.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 5 | 100,0% | 73,9% | +37,6 |
| 24 | IMG20220716211425.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 2 | 100,0% | 73,2% | +38,0 |
| 25 | IMG20220726133427.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 1 | 100,0% | 73,0% | +38,0 |
| 26 | IMG20260903160123.jpg | ⛰️ Peru | 9 | 77,8% | 72,7% | +23,3 |
| 27 | IMG20220717180452.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 4 | 75,0% | 71,5% | +13,5 |
| 28 | IMG20220717141545.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 3 | 66,7% | 70,8% | +29,7 |
| 29 | IMG20220722204453.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 7 | 85,7% | 70,1% | +22,0 |
| 30 | IMG20220727202742.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 2 | 50,0% | 69,7% | +25,5 |
| 31 | IMG20220719183809.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 4 | 75,0% | 68,8% | +11,3 |
| 32 | IMG20220719151859.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 4 | 75,0% | 67,9% | +22,8 |
| 33 | IMG20260902124052.jpg | ⛰️ Peru | 8 | 62,5% | 67,5% | +16,8 |
| 34 | IMG20260903122928.jpg | ⛰️ Peru | 14 | 76,9% | 67,5% | +10,4 |
| 35 | IMG20260830093054.jpg | ⛰️ Peru | 10 | 70,0% | 67,0% | +13,8 |
| 36 | IMG20220716145904.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 4 | 75,0% | 65,9% | +22,0 |
| 37 | IMG_7842.jpg | ⛰️ Peru | 14 | 76,9% | 65,9% | -21,7 |
| 38 | IMG20260917145409.jpg | ⛰️ Peru | 10 | 70,0% | 64,8% | +10,2 |
| 39 | IMG20220727185650.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 5 | 60,0% | 64,1% | -6,2 |
| 40 | IMG_6031.jpg | ⛰️ Peru | 15 | 66,7% | 62,1% | -64,2 |
| 41 | IMG20220716121947.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 3 | 66,7% | 61,3% | +15,0 |
| 42 | IMG20220719170606.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 5 | 80,0% | 59,1% | +1,2 |
| 43 | IMG20220723172625.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 2 | 50,0% | 58,8% | -17,5 |
| 44 | IMG20260917145400.jpg | ⛰️ Peru | 14 | 57,1% | 58,8% | -32,4 |
| 45 | IMG20220719170611.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 2 | 100,0% | 58,5% | +14,5 |
| 46 | IMG20220714130541.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 4 | 66,7% | 58,4% | +11,0 |
| 47 | IMG20220716131851.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 2 | 50,0% | 57,7% | -24,0 |
| 48 | IMG20220719170008.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 3 | 66,7% | 57,2% | -171,3 |
| 49 | IMG20220717201942.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 4 | 50,0% | 56,7% | -1,3 |
| 50 | IMG20220719140413.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 3 | 100,0% | 54,1% | +7,7 |
| 51 | IMG20220715164744.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 3 | 66,7% | 54,0% | -37,3 |
| 52 | IMG20220713172036.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 5 | 40,0% | 53,7% | -23,6 |
| 53 | IMG20220724155635.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 5 | 60,0% | 53,6% | -104,2 |
| 54 | IMG20220717145354.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 5 | 40,0% | 53,6% | -28,4 |
| 55 | IMG20260918083811.jpg | ⛰️ Peru | 15 | 57,1% | 51,6% | -43,3 |
| 56 | IMG20260918090445.jpg | ⛰️ Peru | 16 | 56,3% | 50,4% | -142,2 |
| 57 | IMG20220715115343.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 3 | 66,7% | 49,8% | -33,3 |
| 58 | IMG20220714221040.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 2 | 50,0% | 47,3% | -30,5 |
| 59 | IMG20260918103901.jpg | ⛰️ Peru | 17 | 43,8% | 47,0% | -141,9 |
| 60 | IMG20220719132339.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 4 | 50,0% | 46,3% | -142,0 |
| 61 | IMG_6023.jpg | ⛰️ Peru | 12 | 36,4% | 40,7% | -157,5 |
| 62 | IMG20220724174731.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 3 | 33,3% | 39,9% | -43,0 |
| 63 | IMG20220717125359.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 5 | 40,0% | 38,1% | -134,6 |
| 64 | IMG20220720123329.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 4 | 33,3% | 35,1% | -56,3 |
| 65 | IMG20220725123423.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 3 | 0,0% | 14,8% | -264,3 |
| 66 | IMG20220713191303.jpg | ❄️ Greenland | 1 | 0,0% | 0,1% | -621,0 |
“Top choice correct” measures how often the participant’s most likely country was correct. “Avg. P(correct)” is the average probability participants assigned to the true country, which is often the most direct measure of how difficult a picture feels.